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College Football Betting Picks for Week 11: Who are the next CFP contenders to stumble?

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Don’t look now but this might be a fade article

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 06 Indiana at Michigan Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It’s time for me to face the music. I am on a horrendous run lately so if you’re actually coming here for advice for the now legal sports betting here in Florida, think I’d recommend considering to fade my selections.

After last weekend’s 2-8 performance, I am now at 44-61. I had a strong start but I have been abysmal since mid-October. Reaching .500 is feeling like a dream at this point, but we will not stop pushing to get there.

From what I can tell, nobody in the comments went over .500 last week either, which at least makes me feel a little better, though some of OhNoleHeDidnt had some confusing picks.

Let’s hope we all get back in the green this week (especially now that I have that new sports betting app here in Florida).

All lines come from Tallysight.com.

  • No. 6 Michigan (-1.5) at Penn State (Noon ET, ABC)

Michigan has the blessing of the College Football Playoff committee as they leapfrogged the Michigan State team that beat them just the week before. It’s a strange choice on the surface, but I guess the believe Sparty’s comeback wasn’t indicative of who they really are. Outside of the committee, no one seems to believe in Michigan, but I think I am ready to be that person. They’ve run the ball well which has allowed them to start throwing it more as the year progresses. They’ll have a tough task at Penn State, but the Nittany Lions have really faded recently. Is that a product of a coach potentially on the way out?

Prediction: Michigan -1.5

  • No. 8 Oklahoma (-6.5) at No. 13 Baylor (Noon ET, FOX)

Now, Oklahoma is clearly viewed the opposite by the committee. Oklahoma is unbeaten thanks to a lot of close victories and have gotten no respect for it. The QB change from Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler (lol) to Caleb Williams has opened up a lot for this team. But they still struggle on the road. They played Kansas and Kansas State close in Manhattan and Lawrence and I expect the trip to Waco to be a bigger problem for them than those two.

Prediction: Baylor +6.5

  • No. 1 Georgia (-19.5) at Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

It’s been all roses for Georgia this season as they have steamrolled through just about everybody on their schedule. That is everybody except Clemson, who in hindsight isn’t that good. And not to be that guy, but who has Georgia beaten that actually is good? Auburn, Arkansas and Kentucky were all ranked when they played, but does anyone take them as elite. Tennessee isn’t elite either, but something to keep in mind long-term when they face Alabama, Ohio State and others.

Prediction: Georgia -19.5

Florida State fans, which I’m assuming is all of you, I’ve got great news for you. I love Miami this weekend. The absence of Jordan Travis from the game and practice last week has me expecting some rust plus the Hurricanes have really opened the offense with the emergence of Tyler Van Dyke and Jaylan Knighton. I expect them to continue putting up points and for FSU to just not have enough juice in the end to get over the hump.

Prediction: Miami (FL) -2.5

  • No. 19 Purdue (+21.5) at No. 4 Ohio State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Purdue. The giant killers. The Spoilermakers. This team has made a name for itself this season toppling two top-5 teams this season. Earlier this year, they knocked off Iowa and followed it with the win over Michigan State last week. But they also got thumped earlier this season at Notre Dame. I’m surprised this line is so big because I expected some overreaction to last week’s result, but I do think Purdue can only punch over their heads for so long.

Prediction: Ohio State -21.5

This game is getting the College Gameday treatment this week as one of the few between ranked teams so it should be a great environment in Oxford this game. As many of you correctly called last week, Jimbo has made the most out of his team this season. A quarterback injury could’ve derailed the whole thing, but he’s done a masterful job of keep them on the tracks. Ole Miss continues to be ranked very high despite their losses and even ugly wins. Quarterback Matt Corral has been limited in recent weeks thanks to an injury and that’s keeping their games close. As much as I think Oxford will be huge in the contest, the limitations to Corral will be a problem.

Predictions: Texas A&M -2.5

  • No. 9 Notre Dame (-5.5) at Virginia (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Who’s joining me in picking Virginia this week? Notre Dame is due for the late season loss that ends their year and the Cavaliers have the offense capable of outpacing the Irish. They’re at home so why not?

Prediction: Virginia +5.5

Welcome everyone to the ACC Wheel of Destiny. Wake’s out of conference loss to North Carolina (what a time to be alive) guarantees there will be no unbeaten ACC team and likely no ACC team in the CFP this season. They played pretty well but couldn’t keep up with Sam Howell and Ty Chandler’s legs. NC State is not the same prolific offense that UNC can be. I’ve been wrong about them all year, but I eventually have to be right about them... right?

Prediction: Wake Forest -1.5

Oklahoma State is on a collision course with their state rival for an epic Bedlam this season that could (doubt it with the way the committee views the Big 12 but could) decide a playoff spot. To make that happen, they’ve got to get through TCU who pushed out the school’s legendary coach Gary Patterson and then upset Baylor. They’ve got a chance for a second straight upset this week, but I think that’s too much to ask. Plus I love the defense from the Cowboys this season.

Prediction: Oklahoma State -11.5

  • Nevada (+2.5) at San Diego State (10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)

Here’s a fun one to watch late Saturday night. San Diego State and Nevada will meet in a huge contest in deciding the Mountain West. The Aztecs were one of the last unbeatens before falling to Fresno State two weeks ago, yet they’re still in the top 25 thanks to a pair of wins over Pac-12 teams (Arizona and Utah). Nevada has a win over a Pac-12 team as well with an opening week victory against Cal. These are two of the best Group of 5 teams in a game worth a watch if you’re up late.

Prediction: San Diego State -2.5