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Staff predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Boston College Eagles

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Will Florida State beat Boston College for a third game in a row?

NCAA Football: Miami at Florida State
 Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis (13)
Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

The Florida State Seminoles will travel to Chestnut Hill to face the Boston College Eagles in Alumni Stadium, on Saturday at High Noon. The game will be televised on the ACCNetwork, which means that the millions of FSU fans who have Comcast cable will not be able to watch the game because of the arrogance of both parties involved.

The 4-6 Seminoles are once again the road underdog this week versus the 6-4 Eagles. FSU holds a 13 to 5 all-time series lead in head-to-head matchups against BC, and a 4-1 winning record whenever Boston College was ranked in the top 25.

According to DraftKings, Florida State is presently a 1.5 point road underdog vs. Boston College, with the over/under set at 54.5 points.

Your Tomahawk Nation staff, as they do every week before a game, have broken down the film, charted every All-22 play-by-play snaps, performed A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) virtual simulations of the individual man-to-man matchups [by position], compiled, sorted, and analyzed all of the data, and have come to the conclusion that the Noles will probably maybe win despite being a 1.5 point dog this Saturday.

  • Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
  • Then look over and digest all of the FREE PREGAME CONTENT we’ve posted below.
  • Please then share your opinions and thoughts how you are feeling about this game in the comments, and a final score prediction, for a chance to win something shiny.

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NoleThruandThru (Season prediction record: 7-3):

I AM SO HAPPY I WAS WRONG LAST WEEK!!! Coming off a huge comeback victory over Miami, this team has a new level of confidence in itself. There are still plenty of areas to clean up and by no means do I expect FSU to start performing like the teams we saw a decade ago, but you can’t underestimate the buoyancy of a victory like we saw last weekend.

Boston College is a game I’ve had circled since the offseason as one I was worried about, but the noon kickoff is a nice stroke of luck. With a healthy duo of Phil Jurkovec to Zay Flowers, a built-like-a-cannon-ball running back in Pat Garwo, and a talented tight end in Trae Barry, the Eagles will be formidable on offense. I expect Barry to feast on the linebacker unit and Jurkovec to work the middle of the field to success, but the FSU defensive line should still create some havoc behind Jermaine Johnson II and Keir Thomas.

The BC defense is excellent against the pass, allowing less than 160 yards per game through the air (good for 3rd in the nation). Rush defense is another story- I’d expect big games from Jashaun Corbin, Treshaun Ward, and Jordan Travis on the ground. If FSU can get some big plays in the passing game to keep things honest, this should be a fun one. My head says BC is the better team right now, but my heart doesn’t give a damn. One step closer to 6 wins and a bowl game.

FSU 28, BC 24

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LastNoleOfKrypton

High noon with a high of 48 and no rain and no wind; ideal conditions for the southern-bred ‘Noles traveling to BC for a late November road game. This is a case where FSU’s strength matches up well with BC’s weakness. BC ranks in the bottom quarter of every advanced run defense statistic whether that’s opportunity rate, avg. line yards, power-stopping rate, and stuff rate. BC has got its quarterback so its offense is clicking so the best way to stop them is to run the ball and keep Phil Jurkovec and the fighting Eagles on the sideline.

FSU 34 BC 28

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Brian Pellerin (Season prediction record: 4-6):

Florida State is in a perfect sandwich spot on their schedule for a trap game. They’re coming off a comeback victory against a rival and have another rival on the schedule. This sets up exactly like a classic letdown/look-ahead spot for the Noles. But I’m not going that way. It’s tough to gauge what to expect from Boston College as they haven’t had their QB for most of their season and the games they did have him were against cupcakes. Last week, he was back and shredded Georgia Tech. That’s certainly a problem for the Noles, but I believe they’ll find a way in the end to get the win.

Florida State 36, Boston College 33

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FrankDNole (Season prediction record: 4-6):

Being the underdog this week against Boston College on their home field should make this a SOD game for the Noles.

It’s just a shame that the crabgrass/ragweed that those Yankee’s have the nerve to call SOD will have to be buried in our beautiful soil at the SOD cemetery, on the gorgeous Florida State Campus.

The Florida State SOD Cemetery caretakers should spray plenty of Round Up (while wearing approved protective gear, of course) all around the new hole to prevent the other SOD graves from being contaminated.

The only good thing about the Boston area is their proximity to fresh seafood, and Aerosmith and Boston.

The Florida State University Seminoles 34 - The Wahlburgers 24

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Jon Marchant (Season prediction record: 7-3)

I fear the mental maturity, or lack thereof, of this very young team. Will they make the same mistake they did against Jacksonville State following the moral victory against Notre Dame? This time it’s an actual victory, and a thrilling one over a hated rival at that. This team is learning how to win, but part of that is doing what the 2013 national title team did and treating every game as a faceless opponent and by consequence bringing your “A” game every weekend. There’s no shame in this team not being there yet. Plus, this is the “lose a little” year and so far they’re more or less right on track. But with it being such a closely predicted game, despite my score prediction I think this one could go either way. The difference for me is bad luck; the Eagles are getting a healthy Phil Jurkovec back.

BC 34, FSU 27

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Tommy (Season prediction record: 4-5)

High noon (insert a Jaw Harp whistle and a tribe of Seminoles peaking over Chestnut Hill at Alumni Stadium, Tomahawks in hand.) Like my colleague LastNoleofKrypton stated, stick to the run game and then stick to the run game some more. If FSU can hit some shot plays downfield and keep constant pressure on Jurkcovec, the victory is Florida State’s for the taking.

Stacking good practices on good practices has been the name of the game these past two weeks and the overall health of the team is promising. Can the Seminoles put the bad parts of the Miami game behind them and let the good parts carry over? I think if the defensive line has as good a game as they did last Saturday there should be enough to overcome the -1.5 points and put the Noles into victory formation.

Florida State 31, Boston College 24

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Perry Kostidakis has a funny name (Season prediction record: 7-3)

What better team to showcase Jordan Travis’ progress over the last few years than vs. the team where his Florida State journey more or less officially kicked off?

Boston College has found a groove over these last few weeks, but Florida State got the confidence infusion it needed by clawing its way back against Miami.

Florida State 36, Boston College 17

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Florida State Seminoles vs. Boston College Eagles:

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

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Game notes via Seminoles.com

  • The Seminoles have converted 25 consecutive Red Zone trips for a total of 150 points, the longest active streak in the ACC and 3rd-longest active streak in the country (via ESPN Stats & Info). It is also the program’s longest Red Zone scoring streak since converting 31 straight across the 2016 and 2017 seasons. FSU was 1-for-1 with a touchdown in the Red Zone against Louisville, 6-for-6 against Syracuse, scoring four touchdowns and two field goals, 3-for-3 at North Carolina with three touchdowns, 6-for-6 against UMass with five touchdowns and one field goal, 1-for-1 at Clemson with a touchdown, 2-for-2 with two touchdowns against North Carolina State and 6-for-6 with three touchdowns and three field goals vs. Miami.
  • FSU ranks 1st in the ACC and 18th in the country with a 71.4 Red Zone touchdown percentage this season (25-of-35).
  • Florida State has recorded at least one interception in six straight games, the program’s longest streak since 2014, and has 12 total takeaways in those games. The Seminoles’ season total of 16 takeaways ranks 2nd in the ACC.
  • The Seminoles have rushed for at least 200 yards in six of their first 10 games this season and are one of 14 teams with six 200-yard rushing games this year. The last time FSU produced six 200-yard rushing games in a 10-game span was 2017 when the Seminoles rushed for at least 200 yards in six of the final 10 games of the season.
  • In the 21 seasons from 1995-2020, Florida State had at least six 200-yard rushing games in a season five times (1995, 2002, 2012, 2013, 2017). FSU posted four 200-yard rushing games in nine contests in 2020 and is averaging 193.4 rushing yards per game in 19 games under Mike Norvell.
  • Florida State has produced a 100-yard rusher in six of its first 10 games of 2021, one of only seven teams in the country to have at least six different games with a 100-yard rusher and six 200-yard rushing games as a team this year. Running back Jashaun Corbin has four 100-yard games, the 4th-highest total in the ACC, and quarterback Jordan Travis has two 100-yard games, 3rd among ACC quarterbacks and 8th-most overall in the conference.
  • Florida State is tied for 11th in the country with six plays of at least 60 yards this season and tied for 13th with three plays of at least 70 yards. FSU’s three rushing plays of at least 60 yards and two rushing plays of at least 70 yards both rank 1st in the ACC and tied for 4th nationally, while its four rushing plays of at least 50 yards are tied for 3rd in the conference and 13th in the nation.
  • The Seminoles held Miami to 43 rushing yards, the 7th-lowest rushing total for the Hurricanes in the 66 games of the all-time series, and the fewest allowed by FSU in any game since holding Miami to 40 rushing yards on Nov. 2, 2019. It was also the 3rd-best single-game rushing defense of Mike Norvell’s head coaching career.
  • FSU ranks 2nd in the ACC and 11th nationally in Red Zone defense, allowing a score on 70.4 percent of drives that reach the Red Zone. Florida State held opponents to 6-of-12 (.500) Red Zone conversions in October, the best defensive stop rate in the ACC and 2nd-best defensive stop rate in the country.
  • The Seminoles were flagged for two penalties vs. NC State, the fewest in a game for the Seminoles since 2014 and tied for the 2nd-lowest single-game total by an ACC team this season