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Staff predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack

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Will the Noles get to 4 wins this season?

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 05 Notre Dame at Florida State Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Florida State Seminoles will host the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Saturday afternoon at 4:00 p.m.

The 3-5 Seminoles are again the underdog this week versus the 6-2 Wolfpack, against whom the Noles have a 26-14 series winning record.

However, NC State beat the Seminoles last year and have won 3 of the last 4 games played, going back to beating the 12th ranked Noles during Jimbo Fisher’s final season fiasco.

According to DraftKings, Florida State is presently a 2.5 point home underdog vs. NC State, with the over/under set at 56 points.

Your Tomahawk Nation staff, as they do every week before a game, have broken down the film, charted every All-22 play-by-play snap, performed A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) virtual simulations of the individual man-to-man matchups [by position], compiled, sorted, and analyzed all of the data, and have come to the conclusion that the Noles maybe could win despite being a 2.5 point dog this Saturday.

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Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack:

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

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After looking over and digesting all of this FREE PREGAME CONTENT, please read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown, and then please share your opinions and thoughts about this game.

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NoleThruandThru (Season prediction record: 6-2):

FSU was well within striking distance of a victory last week but penalties and self-inflicted wounds cost them in the end. Now they face a talented NC State squad with another dislikable head coach. Will the ‘Noles be hungry and motivated after they let the Clemson game slip away, or will they succumb to an emotional hangover and let one loss turn into two?

This week’s game could go a number of ways and I’ve been going back and forth on my prediction. I just keep coming back to the amount of FSU players who missed significant practice time this week as the flu runs through Tallahassee like Dalvin Cook through a Miami defense. For that reason, I’m just not confident in picking a win this week. I really hope I’m wrong because I’d love to see Doeren take a big, fat, Durden-sized L.

NC State 31, FSU 27

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Brian Pellerin (Season prediction record: 4-4):

A disappointing Florida State loss last week, but anybody who’s listened to the Seminole Wrap podcast (rate, review subscribe, all the great things) this season knows this team is capable of beating anybody and losing to anybody. I believe they are clicking more every week. They’ve also played well at home while their NC counterpart has struggled on the road. I’ll rock with that because I’ve been wrong every time I’ve tried to figure out what to make of this NC State team with football logic so let’s KISS (Keep It Seminole Stupid).

Florida State 34, NC State 30

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Tommy (Season prediction record: 4-4):

Whew. This is a tough one. It’s a similar matchup defensively as last week however, not so similar offensively. There aren't as many NFL-caliber receivers as there were at Clemson but that ground gets made up with upperclassmen and a dynamic quarterback in Devin Leary. That, paired with another top 25 rushing defense could slow the Noles down. Most of us would love to say that Florida State rains 49-points down streets of rage style and kicks the Wolfpack to the curb but I just can't see it as of today. I do have faith though. If the magic can keep brewing within this team and push them over the edge then all is fair. Drawing air through my gritted teeth, wincing while typing this:

Florida State 29, NC State 21

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FrankDNole (Season prediction record: 3-5)

As a realistic and objective FSU fan, I have come to the realization that the chances of FSU making the CFP suffered a blow with last week's loss. However, a Big 6 major bowl bid is still in play for FSU if they take care of business for the rest of the season.

I am sure that the FSU players are going to play harder, want it more, and give 110% more effort on every play than the NCST players.

The Florida State University Seminoles 31, Doeren’s Pups 24

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Jon Marchant (Season prediction record: 6-2)

I uhh...I know this is gonna sound overly negative but I just know that Devin Leary will have one of the best games of his season tomorrow. That's not a reflection of Adam Fuller, it's just that everyone still treats FSU like their Super Bowl. I expect/hope the game to be close, perhaps decided by a single turnover or other mistake. I think FSU certainly has a chance to win, a much better chance than the 'Noles had against Clemson. But it's just hard for me to pencil in a win here when FSU is still such a work in progress.

NC State 27, FSU 23

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Perry Kostidakis (Season prediction record: 5-3)

NC State isn’t playing its best football right now — but it’s playing good enough, and that makes the difference in this one. FSU puts up a good effort, but the Wolfpack outlast the Seminoles in a back-and-forth.

NC State 31, Florida State 23

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Game notes via Seminoles.com

  • The Seminoles have rushed for at least 200 yards in six of their first eight games this season and are one of eight teams with six 200-yard rushing games this year. The last time FSU produced six 200-yard rushing games in an eight game span was 1995 when the Seminoles rushed for at least 200 yards in the first six games of the season.
  • In the 21 seasons from 1995-2020, Florida State had at least six 200-yard rushing games in a season five times (1995, 2002, 2012, 2013, 2017). FSU posted four 200-yard rushing games in nine contests in 2020 and is averaging 204.1 rushing yards per game in 17 games under Mike Norvell.
  • FSU’s season average of 5.46 yards per rush is 2nd in the ACC and 10th nationally, and its 209.4 rushing yards per game are 2nd in the ACC and 21st nationally. In October, the Seminoles averaged 5.83 yards per rush, 6th in the country, and 228.8 rushing yards per game, which ranked 14th nationally.
  • Florida State has produced a 100-yard rusher in six of its first eight games of 2021, one of only three teams in the country to have six different games with a 100-yard rusher and 200 yards rushing as a team this year. Running back Jashaun Corbin has four 100-yard games, the 3rd-highest total in the ACC, and quarterback Jordan Travis has two 100-yard games, 6th-most in the conference.
  • The Seminoles have converted 17 consecutive Red Zone trips for a total of 105 points, the 4th-longest active streak in the country (via ESPN Stats & Info) and the program’s longest Red Zone scoring streak since converting 30 straight to end the 2016 season and its first in 2017. FSU was 1-for-1 with a touchdown in the Red Zone against Louisville, 6-for-6 against Syracuse, scoring four touchdowns and two field goals, 3-for-3 at North Carolina with three touchdowns, 6-for-6 against UMass with five touchdowns and one field goal, and 1-for-1 at Clemson with a touchdown.
  • FSU ranks 2nd in the ACC and 11th in the country with a 74.1 Red Zone touchdown percentage this season (20-of-27).
  • Florida State is tied for 7th in the country with six plays of at least 60 yards this season and tied for 8th with three plays of at least 70 yards. FSU’s three rushing plays of at least 60 yards and two rushing plays of at least 70 yards both rank 1st in the ACC and tied for 4th nationally, while its four rushing plays of at least 50 yards are tied for 2nd in the conference and 6th in the nation.
  • The Seminoles rank 2nd in the ACC and 5th nationally in 4th-down defense with opponents converting only 25.0 percent (3-of-12) this season. In October, FSU’s opponents were 0-for-6, the most attempts in the country without allowing a conversion.
  • FSU ranks 2nd in the ACC and 7th nationally in Red Zone defense, allowing a score on 65.2 percent of drives that reach the Red Zone, and held opponents to 6-of-12 (.500) Red Zone conversions in October, the best defensive stop rate in the ACC and 2nd-best defensive stop rate in the country.