Bye week roundtable: Evaluating FSU after 7 games

Florida State Seminoles football (4-3, 2-3 ACC) has had a season of ups and downs so far — a 4-0 start and the program’s first appearance in the AP Top 25 since 2018 followed by a three-game losing streak to three straight ranked opponents (No. 13 Wake Forest, No. 23 NC State, and No. 5 Clemson).

The Seminoles went toe-to-toe with the other contenders in the ACC Atlantic (outgaining both NC State and Clemson) and, after seeing shots at victory slip away due to self-inflicted mistakes, received a lesson in what further progress needs to be made to be at a level of consistent contention.

According to our original staff win share projections, FSU is right on schedule — our average expected 4.1 wins at this point, with an overall average prediction of 7.88. The Seminoles, who are likely to be favored in each game the rest of the way, have a chance to at the very least head to a bowl for the first time since 2019 and at most end the season with a chance to snag 10 wins in year three of the Mike Norvell era.

After the midpoint of the season, here’s how the Tomahawk Nation staff sees the Seminoles.

Breaking down the Florida State Seminoles Offense

Quick stats

Average yards/game: 465

Average points/game: 30.9

Leading rusher: Treshaun Ward, 488 yards, 3 touchdowns

Leading receiver: Johnny Wilson, 492, 3 touchdowns

Jordan Travis: 122 for 198 (61.6% completion percentage), 1661 yards, 11 touchdowns, 3 interceptions

PFF Grades

Offense: 90.6 (No. 1 ACC, No. 7 overall)

Passing: 85.6

Pass blocking: 61.5

Receiving: 81.8

Running: 90.4

Run blocking: 66

Who or what has been the biggest surprise on offense?

Tommy: The rushing attack and improved run blocking. Wide receiver Johnny Wilson has a PFF run block grade of 88.7, the highest on the team. Center Maurice Smith is the highest-rated offensive lineman at 67.3 when rushing the ball, and regardless of grades, you can see it with your own two eyes. The three-headed rushing attack would have to be my biggest surprise. It’s not just blocking; however, it's the YAC. Trey Benson leads the team overall, and of his 374-yards total yards, 275 came after contact, and that trend stretches throughout the RB room.

Perry: Johnny Wilson is the easy answer, and I’m taking an easy win early on here. Wilson looked good but not dominant in the offseason, and while he still hasn’t had a chance to consistently be dominant, he’s showcased a level of playmaking that was enough to put the nation on notice and log one of the best receiving performances in FSU history when he went off vs. Louisville.

Brian: The depth of the receiving corps has been the biggest surprise for me. Before the year, this was the clear weak spot on the offense. Now, they’ve got a bunch of reliable options in Johnny Wilson, Mycah Pittman, and Ontaria Wilson. They just added Ja’khi Douglas to the mix. He had a touchdown in his first game last week on just one catch. He’ll likely get more involved after the bye, giving them another dynamic option. I don’t think any FSU fan will argue that this group is among the best in the nation or even the conference, but they were among the worst a year ago. They are much better than that this season and largely responsible for some of the improvements we’ve seen in the passing game.

NoleThruandThru: TE Markeston Douglas has really taken a step forward in his development. I’m looking forward to seeing how he finishes out this season and how he does in the coming offseason because if he continues along this trajectory, he’ll be a favorite to be TE 1 next season.

FrankDNole: The wide receiver corps showed improvement in all areas; catching the ball, running correct routes, and especially blocking.

While it appears to me that all the receivers have improved in these 3 areas, there is absolutely no doubt Johnny Wilson is a big part of that squad's improvements. He is the hardest worker and seems to take pride in his blocking abilities. I’m thinking his dedication probably rubbed off on some of the other players, and hopefully somehow improved the coaches too.

Evan Johnson: It’s tough to pick just one option. I think Jordan’s increased ability to throw the ball has done wonders for this offense. The obvious book on this FSU offense coming into the year was to stack the box and force FSU to rely on JT’s arm and defenses really can’t do that now. Of course, the improved play of the WRs and OL deserve a lot of credit here but Norvell wants FSU to be a running team and with Travis keeping defenses honest, at a minimum, they are able to rely on the run game more times than not. I thought Travis would be a good QB but some of his throws and understanding of the offense are much better than I thought they’d be.

Where does FSU need to improve moving forward?

Tommy: Not letting the finer details get the best of them. Sound fundamentals negate a lot of momentum swings, and although they did fight back last Saturday, communication and execution of plays in critical moments need to happen to be able to put games away instead of stalling out.

Perry: Finishing off drives with points after producing explosive plays. With the talent added and developed across the board on offense, FSU has reeled off a number of huge plays to a variety of different players, but it has had trouble turning those drives into points — whether from missed field goals, failed fourth down conversions or penalties forcing the Seminoles into a punting situation. The offense is this close to figuring out how to be one of the best in the country but it keeps showing the growth needed to make that a reality.

NoleThruandThru: Communication across the board. It just seems to me that Mike Norvell (and to a lesser extent Alex Atkins) aren’t on the same page as Jordan Travis. Whether that’s miscommunication, decision-making on Travis’ end, odd play calling, or some of each, I’m not sure... they just need to be on the same page regarding play execution, check downs, RPO decision-making, etc. There have been quite a few yards and first-downs left on the field due to miscommunication.

Brian: Situational football. Man, this team was good enough to be competitive in each of their losses to win, but they were time and time again unable to make the plays necessary in big spots to take those games. Even in their win against LSU, they were really poor in the spots they had to put the game away. They won’t improve the depth of talent during a bye week, but being a little crisper in those important spots could be the difference between 7, 8 and 9 wins.

FrankD: Closing out games and putting their cleats on the other team's throats while they have a chance. I’m not crazy about some of the plays called, but I understand the need to mix up the plays and throw in some gadget plays that may backfire.

Also, this may surprise some of you, but I have never coached or played organized football and I am not watching the practices every day, but this Norvell fella should check in with me weekly. I would tell him to ease up on the number of the WR screens and explain to him where he needs to improve.

Evan Johnson: Echoing everybody else here: situational football. The problem is I’m not sure they are able to improve here. They are good enough to beat teams they are better than because those teams are oftentimes also situationally poor but trying to beat a team with more talent or experience than you while being situationally poor is difficult. A lot of this comes from soft factors that are difficult, if not impossible, to coach.

A major reason that more talented teams win games is not just that they can athletically make plays other players can’t but they can mentally make plays other players can’t. There’s a lot to be said for a defender’s willingness to stick their nose in a pile to stop a running back, or a receiver’s mentality of coming down with a ball no matter what. I’m just not sure FSU has enough players that are mentally talented enough to get demonstrably better here. I think they can mask that with the fact that they are going to be more talented and better coached than pretty much every other team on their schedule at this point.

Will FSU have a 1000-yard rusher or receiver (or neither, or both)?

NoleThruandThru: No. As it stands right now for the running backs, Tresahun Ward has 488 yards, Trey Benson has 372, and Lawrance Toafili has 245. I think it’s far more likely that FSU has all three RBs cross the 600-yard mark and finish between 900-600 yards each. Jordan Travis may even crack 600 rushing yards as well. The receiver depth is such that Johnny Wilson (currently at 492 yards) is the only one who could reach the mark, but with FSU’s strong running game and spreading the wealth among the receivers, I think he will finish in the low 900s.

Tommy: Unless they have a game where it is one back that just absolutely takes over, I do not see a 1000-yard rusher. Not that any one of them isn’t capable, but I’m with David on this one, and they will probably have multiple backs between the 600 and 900 range, with the most probably being around 800.

Perry: If you asked me during the high of the undefeated streak I would have maybe said both — there’s been a slight dip in freak single-game performances since then, especially with how the offense has spread the love around. I have some faith in a back hitting that number with how successful the run game has been (No. 8 in the country), but it’ll take Ward averaging 102.4 or Benson averaging 125.6 over the rest of the season to make it happen.

Brian: This will depend on the health of Treshaun Ward. If he returns for Georgia Tech and is able to play fully in his role, he’ll cross it. If not, they won’t have anyone reach either of these marks. Johnny Wilson could get close, but I expect them to spread the passing game around more after the bye.

PacoD: Absolutely. Depending on the timing of Treshaun’s return, we may have two 1,000-yard rushers in Ward and Benson, or Ward and Toafili, or Toafili and Benson. We could possibly have three 1000-yard rushers but I won’t list the players again.

I think if John Wilson is close to the 1000-yard receiving mark, they will feed him the ball to get him there. I’m probably wrong, but I can’t remember FSU’s last receiver to reach the 1000-yard mark, so that means we probably have never had one. Prove me wrong.

Evan Johnson: No, this offense looks to spread the ball around and has the bodies to do it. I don’t think anybody will get enough at bats to cross those marks.

Will Jordan Travis finish the year with over 2800 yards?

Perry: He’s got to average 227 yards over the rest of the year to do it — and right now, through seven games, he’s averaging just over 237 and that’s including a Louisville game that he barely played in (throw that out, his average shoots up to 250.)

Side note: To showcase how far he’s come as a passer, the mark we polled the community on the staff on was 2000 (and for the record, all of the TN staff and 71 percent of you thought he’d pass it.)

Brian: Yes, he’s already at 1,661. The only game he really struggled was NC State. Every other game (outside of the Louisville injury), he’s been over 250 yards. I expect him to settle back in and cruise through that number barring another injury.

NoleThruandThru: Yes. I’d expect him to be right around 2800 by season’s end, then eclipse 3000 after the bowl game.

Francois: Easily, but how many over 3,000 yards will depend on how long Norvell keeps Travis in the game on all the upcoming blow-out wins, and what point he brings in Tate into the games?

Tommy: Oh, Yeee.

Evan Johnson: No, because he will invariably miss enough snaps with injuries. I think he can get there with a bowl game though.

Through 7 games, who is your offensive MVP?

Perry: Easy answer here again — it’s got to be Travis. Him taking the next step as a quarterback has been crucial for the Seminoles’ offense and though he’s faltered a bit since getting dinged up vs. Louisville and dealing with a few injury questions along the offensive line, he still has been the difference in FSU going from bottom of the rung to near-contender.

Brian: I’ll go with Jordan Travis. I considered Treshaun Ward as I’ve been really impressed with his ability to take the lead back role and shoulder more than a dozen carries a game, but this team can’t be anywhere close to where they are without Travis’ improvements. His passing has been much improved this season so much so that I find myself actually calling for him to run more than he is. He’s settled in as a top tier quarterback in the ACC, a conference filled with great QBs. I know a lot of fans have voiced frustrations in the last three games with bad decisions, turnovers or poor throws in some important moments, but I don’t believe that is all his fault nor do I think it erases the season he’s had so far.

NoleThruandThru: It’s hard to choose anyone other than Jordan Travis, so he’s my pick.

Frankie: Travis so far this season. But the trio of running backs has been the best offensive position group.

Tommy: Jordan Travis, with the RBs being in a close second. You can't really have an MVP without everyone clicking together (offensive line, receivers/backs blocking and taking the focus off the passing game when needed), but it has to go to JT because he’s the one getting the skill position guys the ball and doing a ton of the work himself.

JT: It has to be that Tommy guy. He just focuses on himself and the next play day in and day out. It’s just another team; he isn’t worried about them. Most definitely. Touchdown

Evan Johnson: Same as my most improved player: Jordan Travis.

Looking at the Florida State Seminoles Defense

Quick stats

Average yards allowed per game: 332

Average points allowed per game: 22.7

Leading tackler: Safety Jammie Robinson (51 tackles, 21 solo, 31 assist)

PFF Grades

Defense: 77.8 (No. 9 ACC, No. 67 overall)

Run defense: 75.2

Defensive Coverage against receivers: 68

What has been the strongest position group for the Seminoles on defense?

NoleThruandThru: Defensive line. The Seminoles have been stronger than expected along the trenches, and we’ve seen just how strong Fabien Lovett is based on the notable dip throughout his absence. I’ve been impressed with how Derrick McLendon and Jared Verse have stepped up, and the development of guys like Joshua Farmer and Patrick Payton is starting to show. Getting Lovett back will be an enormous boost for this unit.

Perry: I actually have thought that linebacker play from Tatum Bethune and Kalen DeLoach has been the difference-maker in keeping the Seminoles’ defense steady while the defensive line dealt with health issues. We saw last year what a great defensive line and an average linebacker corps looked like, and while the defensive line has been great when gunning at full strength, the difference in the overall elevation of the defense has come from those two.

Brian: I’ll go with the safeties. Jammie Robinson and Akeem Dent actually first and third on the team in total tackles which is probably not great for your deepest players to be in that position, but I think it speaks more to their ability to cover sideline to sideline and come down into the box as well. With Verse and Lovett both missing time, the d-line has remained solid, which is really impressive as well.

Frank: The defensive line. I just wish they had more depth which may have made a difference in some of the losses.

Evan Johnson: The defense line was expected to be the strongest position and they have taken that mantle early and often. The surprising part, for me, is how much they are getting from younger players like Farmer and Payton. While I’m still worried about the depth on the DL going forward those flashes have eased my mind a bit.

Who has taken the largest leap forward?

Perry: Does Jared Verse count? The realistic view on the FCS product heading into 2022 was that he’d be able to display some of the athleticism and raw talent that made him one of the most coveted transfers in the country but still take some time to adjust — and while the second half has been partly true, the first half was undersold. He’s been a difference maker in pass and run defense and held the line together through the absence of Fabian Lovett and health issues of his own.

Brian: Considering most of the bigger players on the defense are transfers, I’ll go with Derrick McLendon. He’s already cleared his tackle total from a year ago. He’s taken on a lead role on the DL when Jared Verse missed a game as well.

NoleThruandThru: Patrick Payton. The work that Payton has put in with Coach Papuchis and Coach Storms is starting to show in a big way. Payton is ahead of schedule developmentally, and I cannot wait to see how he continues to progress. He’s on a trajectory to be a beast off the edge.

Francisco: Jordan Travis has made tremendous improvements in all facets of his game.

Tommy: These are tough. I think the linebacker play has taken a huge step, and Kalen DeLoach is probably my defensive MVP. CB Renardo Green has also stood out to me a bunch, along with S Jammie Robinson. DE Derrick McLendon got his chance and took it, so I don’t know. Pat Payton, Joshua Farmer, and Fabian Lovett — there are good players improving in every position group.

On offense, there are a ton as well. Travis’ accuracy on the run and throwing confidently, Treshaun Ward’s vision, and cutting ability. I really liked Ontaria Wilson’s break out game even though he only got one target against Clemson.

Lawrance Toafili has shown a ton of improvement in the passing game and is turning into that player we all thought he would be.

Evan Johnson: The linebacking unit. When Adam Fuller first showed up to FSU he was extremely hamstrung by a lot of his defensive charges but mostly the linebacking corps. Now with some transfers and development they are becoming a bright spot of this team. That would be hard to fathom this time last year.

What does the defense need to adjust over the last half of the season?

Perry: Getting off the field — which can be as simple as killing opposing drives on third and fourth down or as ambiguous as creating takeaways. Almost like in a bizarro fashion of the offense, the defense has prevented big plays but failed to keep offenses from driving down the field. It has been tasked with holding down the fort through long stretches of FSU offensive stagnation and held up well, but as evidenced by the numbers, not well enough.

Brian: These dudes need to get some turnovers. They’ve got four interceptions and four fumbles through 7 games. That’s not bad in a vacuum, but taking it game-by-game, they’ve only forced 1 turnover in their 3 game losing streak while it over 4 times. They lost the turnover battle in all three games and of course lost all three games. They need to find a way to get those quick changes and put the offense in attack positions.

NoleThruandThru: Brian is dead-on with forcing turnovers, so I’ll add that FSU has to improve on 4th down stops. Opponents are currently sporting a 7-9 (78%) success rate on 4th down conversions against the Seminoles. FSU has to get that success rate down in the second half of the season.

Franco: I agree forcing turnovers would help, but I think recovering turnovers is more important.

Evan Johnson: Nothing. Some of their short comings are just who they are and I don’t know how much they can change that. Some of their short comings are just luck related though, in my opinion. Turnovers will come if you are getting pressure and covering well. Same with short yardage stops (although the way to improve there is to stay out of short yardage situations). I think the defense improves if the offense doesn’t have so many lulls in productivity and that’s not something the defense can do much about.

Will Jared Verse finish the year with over 7 sacks?

Perry: I think he might hit 10, given the opponents coming up and his chance to rejuvenate over the bye.

Tommy: Barring injury, I would feel confident in saying yes. Georgia Tech and the Ragin’ Cajuns should put him over that mark, and then you have to at least give him one in the remainder.

NoleThruandThru: Yes. With 4 sacks already, he might hit 7 if he’s healthy against Georgia Tech. With Fabien Lovett expected to return to the lineup and commanding more attention, I expect Verse to have a couple more multi-sack performances to push him right around 10 on the year.

Brian: Yeah, he’s got a few spots for big games ahead of him. I would bet that he probably pushes 7, but I could see a two sack game putting him over the hump.

Franklin: Yes, probably 10 not counting the bowl game.

Evan Johnson: Yes, assuming he’s healthy. Frankly if he had been healthy the past few games he might at six already.

Through 7 games, who is your defensive MVP?

Perry: I already did the obvious answers on offense, and since everybody else is going to say the main names, I’ll go by the strictest definition of value and say Fabian Lovett. His presence, and lack thereof, has been evident through the first half of the season and him being back on the field is going to pay dividends.

NoleThruandThru: LB Tatum Bethune. He’s certainly had a few struggles, but having an experienced talent on the field to pair with Kalen Deloach has been great to see. Bethune leads the Seminoles with 29 solo tackles and is second on the team in total tackles and TFLs. His leadership has been palpable for the defense.

PaqicitoD: It’s a toss-up for me between Tatum Bethune and Jared Verse, even considering the time Verse missed.

Tommy: DeLoach shows the ability to close space quickly and tackle, and Green has a physicality about him that isn’t necessarily common for corners. And, obviously, Jared Verse is my number one with 14 tackles and four sacks.

Evan Johnson: I had kind of written off DeLoach. I figured he’d see time but I didn’t think he’d show anything special but the amount of improvement in his play so far this year has left FSU with quite good play from the linebacking crew.

Overall

Who has been the most impressive newcomer so far for FSU?

NoleThruandThru: Johnny Wilson is exactly who I thought he’d be (great catch followed by bad drop, rinse and repeat), so I’ll say Trey Benson. He is an absolute terror in the open field as a running back and a kick returner (first kickoff return to the house since 2013, y’all!) and he doesn’t show much limitation from the gruesome injury he’d previously suffered. Benson is averaging 6.9 YPC and has added 5 receptions.

Perry: Pound-for-pound, overall value in all aspects, I’m going to go with Mycah Pittman. On special teams, he’s been able to keep the return game steady either by fielding punts or being a difference maker on kickoff return (him springing Trey Benson for a touchdown vs. Boston College was a thing of beauty.) As a receiver, he’s already exceeded his career production at Oregon in just a few games in Tallahassee, sets a great physical tone and has been a great locker-room addition to top it off.

Brian: It’s Tatum Bethune. He’s been a steadying force for the linebacking group. He’s second on the team in total tackles and first in solo tackles. He’s played well in coverage as well. We were worried about the linebackers entering the season and I think he’s been the biggest reason why they’ve been much improved from a year ago.

Franken: Trey Benson for his all-around contributions.

Tommy: Benson or Pittman — Bethune or Wilson

Evan Johnson: This is a hard one to pick. FSU has done well in the transfer portal and recruiting and it’s really showing this year. I think Johnny Wilson has been more consistent than I thought he’d be so I’ll give him my pick. I expected good blocking and he’s given you that. I wasn’t completely certain how the route running would go and I thought his hands would make him a real liability but he’s been better than I thought and a big reason why FSU is 4-3.

What player needs to see more field time?

NoleThruandThru: For the offense, I’d really like to see more of TE Markeston Douglas. Cam McDonald is what he is and has significant limitations to his game, so I’d love to see how Douglas adapts to a bigger role in the offense. He’s a strong and willing blocker and I think he could do some real damage running short routes against linebackers between the hashes.

For the defense, I’ll say Joshua Farmer. He’s really coming along and has earned more reps in the rotation. Farmer is an incredibly hard worker and is dedicated to his craft, and FSU will need him in a big way next season following the anticipated departures of Lovett and Cooper. Get him some solid reps now to build for the future.

Perry: Not necessarily needs here, but I’d like to see receiver Malik McClain get the chance to elevate his game a little bit more to complement what Johnny Wilson brings to the table as a big play receiver and I also wouldn’t mind a little more Julian Armella action on the offensive line and Azareye’h Thomas in the secondary.

Brian: The player that comes to mind is one that’s seen limited playing time because of injury in Ja’khi Douglas. His speed can be a game-breaker for this offense and an additional weapon for defenses to key on. That could open up more running lanes or allow him to work in outside runs as well. I’m hoping his health can add an extra dimension to this offense.

Frankieboy: Tate Rodemaker needs to get some good work in, but this issue will solve itself as Norvell starts bringing him into games in the middle of the third quarter in the upcoming blowout wins.

Tommy: I want to see Rodney Hill take some serious snaps if the scoreboard allows it. With your number one back potentially injured, the number three spot is open, and I would like to see what he can do outside of the IPF. I know it’s a little iffy putting such a young guy out there, which is probably why he didn't play against Clemson, but I selfishly want to see what he can do.

Evan Johnson: Shyheim Brown deserves a bit more burn over some other more senior DBs. He’s shown a good ability to play well against the run and pass equally. I feel like he’s just as good as some of these other older guys, if not better.

What’s the biggest storyline to keep an eye on moving forward?

Perry: Will Florida State take advantage of a good September start and finish the year strong? 8 wins is nothing to throw a parade over, but a 5-win improvement in two years would be significant for FSU.

Brian: Is Jordan Travis the guy we saw in the first four games or did the losing streak put him in “Superman mode” where he tries to do too much? His early season success was in taking what was given to him, finding the open guy and not doing too much. In the last three games, it felt a little like he was trying to will the team to victory by doing too much. If he takes the break and settles back into his early season rhythm, this team will succeed. If he’s pressing, they’ll continue to struggle.

NoleThruandThru: FSU is very clearly in the “win close” and “lose close” phase of program rebuilding, but the most frustrating aspect of this has been self-inflicted mistakes from both players and coaches. Following the bye week, FSU has one more potentially high-profile upset opportunity against Syracuse and two crucial matchups against in-state rivals. If this team can learn to step on the throat and put an opponent away before the last seconds of the game tick away, we could see a huge swell of momentum following FSU into the postseason and offseason.

Fran’ko D: I want to see if Norvell will learn to close out games and learn to rip out hearts.

Evan Johnson: Can FSU pull away from some of these teams they should. They’ve done a good job against Duquesne and Boston College but can they blow out teams like Georgia Tech and ULL early? If they do it’s likely that they are playing better situationally or showing an attitude of dominance, both of which have been in short supply around this program.

What’s your final regular season record prediction?

NoleThruandThru: I originally hoped for six wins and a bowl game, and I believe I settled on 7-5 as my preseason prediction. I would be fine with FSU finishing at 7-5, but I think they have a real shot at going 4-1 over their final five games if they can keep some key contributors healthy and clean up some self-inflicted errors. I think this team will hit 8 wins, either in the regular season or following a bowl game. Anything less than 7 wins would be a significant disappointment.

Perry: I am at risk of severally overestimating FSU and underestimating the schedule, but I think in order, 4-1, 5-0 and 3-2 the most likely outcomes for the rest of the season. That’s more or less what I had in my original win projections (though admittedly, it appears I overestimated Miami and underestimated Syracuse there.) As NTT put it above, seven wins is fine but not particularly exciting given the start to the season and the opportunity in the final five games of the year. Nine wins though? That would be great, especially in the chance FSU gets a favorable bowl matchup to earn a shot at 10 wins.

Brian: I’ve got them finishing 8-4. I think they’re capable of running the table and finishing 9-3. I also think they’re capable of losing 3 games the rest of the way and ending the year 6-6. But I think realistically, they’re better than every team left on the schedule. I think Miami, Syracuse and Florida are losable games, but I have them beating UF and Syracuse and losing to Miami on the road. 8-4 with a bowl trip would be huge for this program. At this point, 6-6 would feel like a disappointment of a season.

PaquinD: As the most informed and realistic member of the TN staff, I’m going to stick with my original preseason wins total of 9-3, finishing at 10-3 after the Bowl game win.

Tommy: 7-5 regular season. I think at this point in the season you can see marked improvement and a team that continues to improve despite the losing streak. There is a chance to finish out strong and run the table, but 7-5 is my hedged bet.

Evan Johnson: I started the season with a goal of 6-6 and I am very hesitant to change my preseason expectations because those are made for a reason and football is a low sample-size sport. I’ll say 7-5 but my head tells me they should win eight. I know enough now not to listen to my head though.

That guy has gotten me into some trouble. Just ask Frank.