What’s at stake for FSU over the last 5 games of 2022?

Despite a three-game losing streak in October, Florida State still has a chance to finish 2022 strong and slightly ahead of projections.

FSU (4-3, 2-3 ACC) kicked off the year with a 4-0 start, changing the conversation from bowl eligibility to bowl placement and setting up the possibility of an eight or nine-win season when most were anticipating seven. While it squandered chances to bump up that win column number over the last few weeks, the final five games of the season present a multitude of opportunities for FSU to display where the team is at in its climb back to consistent competitiveness and set the foundation for more improvement in 2023.

Georgia Tech

October 29, 12 p.m.

Doak Campbell Stadium

What’s on the line

Snapping two-game losing streak to Yellow Jackets, entering November with a winning record for the first time since 2016

Florida State can get its season back on track after three straight games against ranked opponents in October resulted in a three-game losing streak and snap back to reality for the Seminoles. Potentially heading into November just one win away from bowl eligibility (and with the best record through two months since the 2016 season, when FSU was 5-3) sets up the program with the potential for an extremely strong finish to the year.

Miami

November 5, 7:30 p.m.

Hard Rock Stadium

What’s on the line

Maintaining a win streak over the Hurricanes, potentially securing bowl eligibility

“Thanks for freeing us from Manny!” was a common refrain from the Miami (FL) faithful since last year’s FSU win, but the Hurricanes have struggled so far in year one under native son Mario Cristobal. Miami will be heading into this game 4-4 at best (depending on how the team’s game vs. the Virginia Cavaliers goes) after faltering as favorites vs. UNC, Duke, and Middle Tennessee. While, as the old saying goes, anything can happen in a rivalry game, FSU has an opportunity to stack up a regular season two-game win streak as well as one vs. the Hurricanes, as well as potentially secure bowl eligibility (assuming that FSU handles business vs. Georgia Tech.)

Syracuse

November 12, TBD

JMA Wireless Dome

What’s on the line

Win over ranked opponent, finishing conference schedule with best record since 2016

A game that amped up in difficulty as Syracuse has excelled through the year, this is likely (barring a miracle Florida turnaround) the last ranked opponent on FSU’s schedule in the regular season. Though LSU has maintained a pretty consistent presence in the AP Top 25 over the last few weeks, the Tigers were unranked when the Seminoles beat them in New Orleans in Week 1. FSU has since gone 0-3 vs. ranked competition (Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson), and if the Seminoles fall to Syracuse, it would be the second time since 2019 that the squad failed to beat a currently-ranked opponent.

Assuming that FSU manages to secure wins vs. Miami and Georgia Tech, Florida State will head into this game with a 4-3 record in ACC play. The Seminoles haven’t won more than four ACC games since 2016, and ending conference play above .500 would be a fantastic mark of progress in year three of the Norvell era.

Louisiana-Lafayette

November 19, TBD

Doak Campbell Stadium

What’s on the line

Securing a gimme win, establishing confidence

FSU hasn’t exactly had the best time with non-P5 opponents over the last few years. Outside of this year’s season opener vs. Duquesne and last year’s game vs. UMass, the Seminoles have more often than not struggled to dominate inferior opponents, either flirting with disaster or achieving it (as seen last year vs. Jacksonville State.) Lousiana-Monroe has corrected course after a rough start to the season and has been firmly average, with the emergence of quarterback Ben Wooldridge playing a big part in that. The Ragin’ Cajuns will be out looking for the upset, and FSU is going to have to withstand that initial surge of adrenaline and overconfidence.

Winning this game inspires confidence in the ability of FSU to put away outmatched teams, adds an easy extra digit to the win column, and sets up the Seminoles well for the season finale.

Florida

November 25*, 7:30 p.m.

Doak Campbell Stadium

*Friday

What’s on the line

Snapping a three-game losing streak to UF, improving bowl bid standing

Last year, Florida State had the opportunity to beat a coachless Florida team and secure bowl eligibility and instead, went 5-12 on third down, turned the ball over three times and hilariously failed to execute an onside kick en route to falling short three points in a 24-21 defeat.

Florida (4-3, 1-3 SEC) has had an up-and-down 2022, starting off the year on a high after upsetting Utah at home but then struggling vs. top and inferior talent alike in the aftermath. After this weekend’s game vs. Georgia, the Gators have a legitimate shot at building a three-game win streak heading into the Sunshine Showdown, with games vs. Texas A&M, South Carolina and Vanderbilt leading up to the game.

Barring a meltdown, the Seminoles will be jockeying for bowl placement rather than eligibility at this point and possibly a top 25 ranking, depending on how the last stretch of the year goes for FSU, to end the regular season. Currently, Florida State is being projected to anywhere from the Duke’s Mayo Bowl (ESPN) to the Holiday Bowl (CBS) to the Reliaquest Bowl (Yahoo!) to the Sun Bowl (USA Today).