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Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. NC State Wolfpack

Jordan Travis’ 9.7 yards per pass attempt is tied for 8th in the country and 1st in the ACC

Charles Mays/Tomahawk Nation

The Florida State Seminoles (4-1, 2-1) travel to Raleigh to face the 14th-ranked North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-1, 0-1) for a chance to continue contending for the ACC Atlantic Division title, Saturday evening at Carter-Finley Stadium in ACC Network’s prime time 8 p.m. slot.

NC State has won four of its last five meetings versus the Seminoles, including last season’s 28-14 victory in Tallahassee and have the seventh-longest active home streak at 13 games.

FSU quarterback Jordan Travis is eighth nationally, averaging 9.73 yards per pass attempt and FSU’s 4-1 start is the program’s best since a 6-0 start to the 2015 season and is the sixth time since 2010 FSU has won at least four of its first five games.

Your Tomahawk Nation staff, as they do before every game, have broken down all the FSU and NC State film available, charted each All-22 formations/snaps, performed A.I. virtual simulations, compiled all of the data, and have come to the conclusion that the Noles might possibly win.

According to DraftKings, Florida State is a 3-point dog with an over/under of 50 total points.

  • Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
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  • We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.

NoleThruandThru (season record: 3-2)

I went with my heart over my head last week even though I had a bad feeling about the game. I don’t have a great feeling about this game either, particularly with it being a night tilt at Carter-Finley, but I do think FSU matches up better against the Wolfpack schematically.

Devin Leary hasn’t looked great this year but he’s still a dangerous player. Though it sounds like FSU will get a few injured players back, I still think this could have the makings of a shoot-out if the Wolfpack offense gets hot due to a lack of pressure or a prevent scheme from FSU. I also think this could be the game where missed kicks haunt FSU- it’s a tough environment for any player, especially a kicker in a major slump. Prove me wrong, ‘Noles.

NC State 31, FSU 30

Tommy Mire (season record: 4-1)

Talkin’ bout’, dang ole’, man, Wolfpack man - good team, man. Woof woof bark man. Gotta go in there and ruff up the place. But them dang ole’ Noles, dang ole’, dang ole’ gonna put it together on the road, man. Talkin’ bout’ sod game. Yoo ohh ohh ohh oh, man. Go Seminoles, man, dang ole’ going to be tough.

FSU 28, NC State 21

Juan Montalvo III (season record 69-0*):

I hate Carter Finley stadium. An outhouse in the hills, filled with the excrement of the better Carolina’s worst. The Appalachian Azteca, CF is, in my opinion the toughest place to play in the ACC. This analogy makes sense, because when the good guys come to town, the fans in the stands throw bags of urine.

Inebriated, inimitable, and incomparable, the Pack fans will arrive sloshed, and refresh at halftime. Unfortunately, Florida State fans will likely want to refresh their drinks at half as well. NCSU on the road is a brutal ask, and though this FSU team has hearts of lions, I cannot be anything but pessimistic about a night game in Raleigh. I think FSU loses a close one, with some late action from both sides.

NCSU 31, FSU 27

LastNoleOfKrypton (4-1)

Styles make fights and in terms of style NC State is a better match-up for FSU than Wake Forest was with its long-mesh, veteran QB, and 39 players that would not be playing CFB right now if it weren’t for the extra covid year but I digress. FSU might be a little bit healthier in the trenches than they were last week which I regrettably underestimated vs. Wake Forest

Devin Leary has been good in the past but this year has a seen notable regression in play; FSU stifles NC State’s offense on the road for the first win in Raleigh since 2016. Player of the game? Jammie Robinson.

FSU 24, NC State 17

Gwyn Rhodes (season record: 2-1)

On the softball field, NC State/FSU is pretty much a one way sided matchup (going in favor of FSU), but NCSU has snuck in a few games here and there. However I don't think that will be the case for the football field. Unlike last year’s softball series, where FSU’s offense exploded, I think the defense for both teams on Saturday will be exercised heavily and will result in a low scoring game. All in all, I just hope JTRAV isn’t robbed of a huge touchdown pass like Sydney Sherrill was robbed of a 4th home run in game two of the series.....but I won’t dwell on that.

FSU 21, NC State 24

TimScribble (season record: 3-2)

Oy, a night game at Carter-Finley. I actually feel like Florida State lines up better with the Wolfpack than they did with Wake Forest. If Florida State’s defense can get off the field and not allow Devin Leary and Thayer Thomas to dink and dunk them down the field, the offense may be able to generate enough chance to win this game. As it stands, I don’t know if I have enough faith in the depleted offensive line. I really want to type that Jordan Travis connects with Johnny Wilson to seal the game and give Florida State a huge road win... but I just can’t.

NC State 27, FSU 21

Jon Marchant (season record: 5-0)

I believe we’re getting a handle on who this team is. Travis and the offense are good and explosive, but they’re hampered by poor OT play that has to be schemed around and we’ll see opponents play heavy zone defense the rest of the way to limit big plays. The defense is solid but perhaps too conservative and they badly miss Fabien Lovett. Both squads will have small stretches of poor execution but not enough to make them non-competitive like in previous seasons. Getting healthy is really important for this team, as they don’t have the depth like top teams do. But they are a top-25 team in my opinion.

I picked Wake to beat FSU last week, and I think the Wolfpack are better than the Demon Deacons. I think NC State is probably better than FSU too, and it’s an impossible night game environment in Raleigh. But I’m picking the ’Noles anyway.

FSU 26, NC State 24

Brian Pellerin (season record: 3-2)

I’ve had this one pegged all year as a loss for FSU and I’m going to stick with that. Tough to drop two straight after such a great start to the year, but it’s a tough stretch.

NC State 24, FSU 22

Evan Johnson (season record: 3-2)

I think out of the three opponents FSU is facing in this stretch (Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson) NC State is probably the worse team. Leary hasn’t looked like he has in past years and they seem to be struggling to pull away from teams with a pulse. However, this game is being played in Carter-Finley and that has been a very difficult place for teams to play. FSU will win this game if they can limit mistakes and cash in on a few opportunities. Unfortunately the health of the offensive and defensive lines will probably make that margin for success much lower. I do think FSU can be competitive but I think Carter-Finley wins out in the end.

FSU 28, NC State 42

FrankDNole (season record: 4-1)

This game is going to exorcise all the eviiil Wolf demons that have plagued FSU for the past few years.

It will be a fun game to watch if you are a FSU fan, and it will be funny as the ACCN pans on most of the crowd leaving during the 3rd quarter when the Noles put this game out of reach.

I can guarantee that there will be no fat boy on the flag pole this game.

FSU Seminoles 45, NC State 24

Matt Minnick (season record 4-1)

Wow, was I way off last week. My thinking that we would have a hard time getting Wake Forest off the field was spot on, but my prediction that Wake would have no answers for our dual-threat offense was a disaster. Now, the ‘Noles must travel to a long-time house of horrors for a night game against one of the better defenses in the conference. What could go wrong!?

The good news is, Jordan Travis shouldn’t play as poorly as he did in the second quarter last week and both the OL and DL should hopefully be getting some guys back from injury. Still, road wins against top 25 teams are no easy task. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if FSU does enough to come back with some sod in a coffin. But coming into the season this was my game with the lowest win-share, and while I feel better about our odds now than I did in August, my official prediction has the kicking game costing us a victory.

NC State 28, Florida State 27

Perry Kostidakis (season record 4-1)

Somebody embedded that video before I could write my prediction (I’m not going to cheat and look at the edit history to see who did it, because I love believing in a slightly more magical world) and I would be a cruel, cruel person to deprive you, dear readers, of seeing an entry in the food series that nearly killed me in college.

ANYWAYS — I do not feel particularly confident in this game, even more so knowing that this is going to take place inside Carter-Finley, the entity that introduced me to heartbreak as an FSU student in 2012. Florida State has gotten pretty lucky as far as road crowds go this season — there was a good turnout of FSU fans for both LSU in New Orleans and vs. Louisville. After seeing how effective Wake Forest was in the passing game, there is definitely a concern as to how FSU will be able to contain quarterback Devin Leary (though granted, the Demon Deacons might have a bit more offensive firepower to boost production.) This game is winnable, but given question marks to FSU’s offense in the red zone (both in the kicking game and finishing in short-yardage situations) and the road factor, I think I might have to give the slight edge to the Wolfpack.

Here’s the thing though — I love being wrong.

NC State 31, FSU 26

Florida State Seminoles vs. NC State Wolfpack

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

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