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Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Syracuse Orange

FSU is 1 of only 4 teams ranked in the top 20 in total offense and defense along with Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama

By FrankDNole, Tim_Alumbaugh, brianpellerin, Tommy Mire, NoleThruandThru, evenflow58, LastNoleofKrypton, Perry Kostidakis, Jon Marchant, and gwynrhodes Updated
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 05 Florida State at Miami
 Florida State WR Johnny Wilson
Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Florida State Seminoles (6-3, 4-3) travel to New York to face the Syracuse Orange (6-3, 3-2) Saturday night, in prime time under the lights, on the ACC Network, from the JMA Wireless Dome.

This will be the 15th meeting between the two programs and FSU has won 12 of the last 13 meetings. Both of the Orange’s wins have come in Syracuse, in 1966 and in 2018. Ryan Fitzgerald’s 34-yard field goal as time expired lifted FSU to a 33-30 win last season.

Florida State leads the ACC in yards per rush (5.65), yards per completion (14.05), rushing offense (209.6) and fewest sacks allowed (10). The Seminoles’ average of 14.30 yards per completion is 9th in the country, while their 50.0 percent third-down conversion rate is 12th in the country, average of 5.51 yards per rush is 13th, average of 211.8 rushing yards per game is 17th, and 1.44 sacks allowed per game is 33rd nationally.

Syracuse ranks first in the ACC and 15th in the FBS in total defense, allowing their opponents only 306.9 yards per game. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Orange have held their opponents to less than 400 yards 17 times. Only Clemson (18) has done that more among ACC teams.

Florida State is 1st in the ACC and 5th in the country in pass defense, holding opponents to an average of 165.0 passing yards per game and 6.1 yards per pass attempt.

In last years game, ‘Cuse QB Garrett Shrader rushed for 3 touchdowns against the Noles, and RB Sean Tucker rushed for 102 yards. The Orange trailed by 10 on two occasions in the final 20 minutes of regulation but fought back to tie the game at 30-30.

Your Tomahawk Nation staff, as they do before every game, have “broken down all the FSU and Syracuse film available, charted each All-22 formations/snaps, performed A.I. virtual simulations, compiled all of the data, and have come to the conclusion” that the Noles will win.

According to DraftKings, FSU is currently a 7.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 51 points.

  • Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
  • Then look over and digest all of the FREE PREGAME CONTENT we’ve posted below.
  • We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.

NoleThruandThru (season record: 7-2)

We rollin’, baby, and ‘Cuse is in freefall. No real expert analysis from me this week, other than I really hate orange. ‘Noles win BIG in their conference finale.

FSU 44, Syracuse 16

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Tommy Mire (season record: 6-3)

This is no time for the Noles to take their foot off the gas. The Seminoles have not had a winning conference record since 2016, and a victory on Saturday will add yet another achievement for the ‘22 season.

There are questions (yet again) surrounding injury in the opponent’s quarterback room, and FSU appears to be at 100% health.

I do not think that the Orange will be able to block FSU’s rushing attack, and that is going to just create problems for them on the back end. Syracuse’s highest-graded performance overall was against Wagner in a 59-0 blowout when they had a healthy starting quarterback — their lowest came last week against Pitt without him, so I’m guessing we see something somewhere in the middle.

The health of Shrader will largely affect the outcome of this game, but with Jordan Travis and the run game rolling, I think FSU will handle business this weekend, and the Orange will be #D1SPLEAS3D come Sunday.

FSU 35, Syracuse 21

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LastNoleOfKrypton (4-1)

If this match-up was played a few weeks ago I might lean towards Syracuse being more competitive than they have been lately but FSU is playing much better football than Syracuse now and they’re much healthier at the most important positions on the field than Syracuse. Those positions being QB and defensive line.

Jordan Travis is on a tear and has excelled all year; I think he gets it done in the air and with his legs with Syracuse selling out to stop the three-headed monster of Ward, Benson, and Toafili. I do not anticipate Shrader being able to play this game and outside of NC State (they haven’t lost a home game in two years) FSU has played not just good but sometimes excellent football outside of Doak Campbell stadium. ‘Noles roll.

FSU 31 Syracuse 13

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TimScribble (season record: 6-3)

It’s difficult to get a read on this game with the mystery surrounding Garrett Shrader’s health. If he plays, this is potentially a very tough, close game. Without Shrader, I think FSU wins pretty easily. So I’ll take the L way way out and give you two scores:

Without Shrader: FSU 35, Cuse 17

With Shrader: FSU 27, Cuse 21

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Evan Johnson (season record: 4-3)

This game is a big question for FSU: have they turned the corner. Can they win the game they should probably win but they aren’t overwhelming favorites? Even if Shrader plays FSU should be able to pull away from Syracuse pretty easily. I expect them to shut down the run as much as they can and run Syracuse over on offense. This one will be close at he half and FSU puts it away late.

FSU 28, Syracuse 14

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FrankDNole (season record: 9-3)

I don’t think this game will be decided on the Noles first offensive series like it was last week. Syracuse has a decent defense that played Pitt tough.

While I’ve yet to meet a ‘Cuse fan I did not like, I find the color Orange repulsive and gag inducing. But that has nothing to do with the fact that FSU will control this game by the 3rd quarter.

It will be another opportunity for Tate Rodemaker, and the backups players on offense and defense, to get some much-needed playing time should FSU be one of the teams making the College Football Playoffs, or at least a top 3 bowl.

FSU Seminoles 41, Orange is Fugly 17

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Brian Pellerin (season record: 7-2)

I said on the Seminole Wrap podcast this week and I stand by it. FSU has found its recipe for success with this rushing attack. They are clicking in the passing game when they need to be. They look like the team from the first three games of the season again. That’s enough to handle the final stretch of this season.

FSU 30, Syracuse 17

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Gwyn Rhodes (season record: 5-2)

I like my orange juice freshly squeezed! That's what this about? Orange juice?

FSU 32, Syracuse 17

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Jon Marchant (season record: 7-2)

We’ve seen what FSU can do when they’re healthy. They’re elite in some respects but have major flaws in others. But is Syracuse healthy? That’s the big question. Even though FSU is a 7pt favorite on the road it’s worth stressing that Syracuse is a good team and very capable of beating the ’Noles. But I think FSU makes it three wins in a row.

FSU 34, Syracuse 24

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Perry Kostidakis (season record 8-1)

Florida State, I think, has figured out the small hitches in what held it back in scoring position over the three-game losing streak. The Seminoles are the healthiest they have been all year, Syracuse is still struggling a bit injury-wise while dealing with a losing streak of its own and on paper and on film, FSU is the better team.

FSU 33, Syracuse 25

Florida State Seminoles vs. Syracuse Orange

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

Odds/lines are subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

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