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Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators

FSU’s defense is holding opponents to 104 rushing yards and 121 passing yards per game during their current 4 game win streak

By FrankDNole, Matt Minnick, evenflow58, Tommy Mire, NoleThruandThru, brianpellerin, LastNoleofKrypton, TimScribble, Perry Kostidakis, and Jon Marchant Updated
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Peyton Baker/Tomahawk Nation

The 16th-ranked Florida State Seminoles (8-3, 5-3) will host the unranked, five-time losing Florida Gators at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee on Friday night at 7:30 p.m. The game will be televised nationally on ABC and a captive prime-time audience will be watching the only game in town.

The Seminoles will try to break the Gators' (6-5, 3-5) current 3-game winning streak against FSU. The Noles had won five straight and seven of the previous eight versus UF prior to 2018, but the Gators have turned the tables with wins in each of the last three meetings.

Florida State has a chance to win nine regular-season games for the first time since 2016.

The all-time series dates back to 1958 with the Gators owning a 37-26-2 lead. In the last 14 meetings dating back to 2007 only 2 games have been won by single-digit points, last year’s 24-21 win by the Gators, and the 2014 game won by FSU, 24-19.

The Noles have won their last four games by at least 25 points, the longest active streak in the nation and the 2nd-longest streak by any team in 2022.

FSU has rushed for at least 200 yards in six straight games, the longest active streak in the FBS. The Noles lead the nation with seven touchdown drives of 90+ yards, and are 2nd nationally with 15 touchdown drives of 80+ yards this season.

FSU is one of only three teams in the nation averaging at least 250 yards of passing offense and at least 210 yards of rushing offense per game this season.

Florida QB Anthony Richardson’s 6.6 yards per carry ranks second among FBS quarterbacks. The Gators’ 5.9 yards per carry also ranks second in the country, and their 209.3 rushing yards/game ranks 15th in the FBS.

Florida State’s pass defense is ranked 4th in the FBS, holding opponents to an average of 155.4 yards per game through the air. The Seminoles are one of only six teams in the nation that ranks in the top 25 in total defense, scoring defense, total offense, and scoring offense.

Your Tomahawk Nation staff, as they do before every game, *have broken down all the FSU and Gator film available, charted each All-22 formations/snaps, performed A.I. virtual simulations, compiled all of the data* and have come to the conclusion that the Noles are going to win, possibly in a rout.

According to DraftKings, FSU is currently a 10-point favorite over Florida, with the over/under set at 58 points.

  • Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
  • Then look over and digest all of the FREE PREGAME CONTENT we’ve posted below.
  • We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.
  • NoleThruandThru (season record: 9-2)

The final score won’t be as soul-crushing as what they did to Miami, but this FSU squad is ready to reclaim the state championship. Jordan Travis and the ‘Noles shine on the national stage and complete a 9-3 regular season. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

FSU 41, UF 26

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  • Tommy Mire (season record: 8-3)

FSU is rolling, coming off a 49-17 blowout and a four-game winning streak, now sitting 16th in the CFP rankings.

Florida’s Anthony Richardson will be one of the tougher quarterbacks the Noles face this season; however, the Gators are still trying to find what works under new head coach Billy Napier. With the swamp mullets down five receivers in an already questionable group, the Gator's biggest threat will be RB Ettiene which the Seminoles should have an answer for upfront.

FSU has the better team this year; they’re playing their best ball all season and will be at home on Senior Night in a sold-out Doak Campbell Stadium. It is a rivalry game, and anything can happen, but I think the Noles handle business.

FSU 38, Florida 14

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  • LastNoleOfKrypton

FSU is on a hot streak and Florida was on a three-week winning streak until an embarrassing loss o Vanderbilt.

In this game in terms of health you have two teams going the wrong direction with FSU getting guys back as the season went on and UF losing guys in the same way. Florida may be down to four scholarship wide receivers for the game and so that should mean a lot of Anthony Richardson carries and the three-headed monster of Florida’s running back room. The best position group on its team.

I expect FSU to shut down Florida’s running game early giving a very good FSU offense multiple opportunities versus a decidedly mediocre Florida defense that will be missing its best player in the first half due to a targeting penalty.

FSU Rolls big.

FSU 48 UF 21

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  • Brian Pellerin (season record: 9-2)

Florida State is absolutely rolling currently, which is terrible news for this Florida defense. Their poor third-down play has been responsible for a lot of UF’s struggles. The Gators have really struggled getting off the field even on third and long this season. If Florida State stays out of its own way, I’m confident that they’ll handle this game pretty easily. Florida’s offense is certainly capable of going shot for shot with Florida State if they’re clicking, but I think it’ll take them turning this into an absolute shootout to do so. Fresh off a loss to Vandy, I have little confidence in them doing so.

FSU 41, Florida 27

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  • Matt Minnick (7-1)

UF isn’t the Seminoles’ only rival, but for many garnet and gold faithful, it will always be the most bitter. Muck Fiami and %*#& Florida, am I right?

I felt FSU had a good chance of beating its foes from Hogtown when the year began and the gulf between good and evil has only widened since then. Florida State is legitimately playing football at a top 5 level during the last month, and Florida, well they just lost to Vanderbilt.

In fact, the Gators should feel fortunate that Utah completely choked in The Swamp to start the season because otherwise they would be staying home for bowl season.

FSU lands punches early and often in this one, with the running game going over 3 hundo. UF tacks on a garbage time score for a little bit of window dressing, but the game is never in doubt after halftime.

FSU 42, UF 17

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  • Evan Johnson (season record: 5-2)

I can see a path to victory for Florida. Richardson proves to be the QB everybody thinks he can be, FSU busts some coverages and the UF defense figures out a way to get off the field on third down. Maybe FSU struggles up front and/or the wide receivers get a case of the dropsies.

However, it feels like quite a bit has to go right for UF. Are they going to run AR, which they’ve done comparatively little of this year? Maybe that helps them out. However, I feel like FSU will run out a similar game plan they had against Syracuse. Force UF to beat you through the air and keep running the ball right at them.

FSU 35, UF 17

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  • TimScribble (season record: 8-3)

Final game of the regular season and both teams are going to come out giving their all. I think the Gators run AR15 early and often. The Seminoles are going to be in a fight. I think in the end, FSU may have more firepower and wins the slugfest.

FSU 35, Florida 24

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  • Jon Marchant (season record: 9-2)

Over the past month FSU has played like a top 5 team and the Gators haven’t.

FSU 33, Florida 24

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  • FrankDNole (season record: 9-3)

This will not be pretty, in a good way, and that makes me giddy.

Due to nature and importance of this game, I expect Norvell will keep the starters in the game even into the start of garbage time before bringing in the second and third units. I also think the Noles will open up the running game by passing early and often, then pounding the gators into quiting, like they have already done several times this season.

This will not be pretty, and that makes me giddy.

FSU Seminoles 45, Hogtown gaturds 24

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  • Perry Kostidakis (season record 10-1)

It’s pretty funny that while FSU-Miami games are very rarely blowouts, the FSU and Florida series has had its fair share of lopsided margins over the last decade. Since 2012, just twice has this game come down to a single touchdown (2021, 2014).

UF is a weird, silly team this year, one that at times has bordered on competitive with some of the nation’s best but has looked brand new to the sport of football at other points, racking up just two wins against P5 opponents with a winning record. The defense is solid but with holes, the offense is a tragedy unless Richardson or one of the backs pulls off something ridiculous.

Florida State is the better team, and will look it for the bulk of the game Saturday — but the Gators are not Miami, and should have at least a bit of pride to keep it not close, but interesting. I’m not fully convinced that FSU covers but on the stat sheet, it’ll be clear who dominated.

FSU 48, UF 36

Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

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