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Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. University of Miami (FL) Hurricanes

FSU leads the nation with 15 touchdown drives of 80+ yards and seven 90+ yard TD drives this season

By FrankDNole, brianpellerin, NoleThruandThru, Tommy Mire, LastNoleofKrypton, gwynrhodes, TimScribble, Jon Marchant, evenflow58, Perry Kostidakis, and Matt Minnick Updated
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Jarad Moon #54

The Florida State Seminoles (5-3, 3-3) are traveling to South Florida to meet up with the University of Miami (FL) Hurricanes (4-4, 2-2) Saturday night under the lights on national television, from the beautiful Miami Dolphins home stadium in Miami Gardens.

The former Dolphins Stadium, which was originally called Joe Robbie Stadium and now goes under the corporate name of Hard Rock Stadium, is located in North Dade County, which is conveniently within the same county as the Miami (FL) Canes campus, and easily accessible for the Miami (FL) Hurricane alumni and fans.

However, this one-time huge rivalry game being played on a Saturday night from the former Sunlife Stadium, has not yet sold out. While the Seminoles did sell out their allocated allotment of tickets, game tickets can be purchased locally for around $10 at this time. Also, it seems the Miami (FL) Canes played some games with the Marching Chiefs about seating, which is not cool.

The game is scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. and will be televised nationally on the ABC Network.

Your Tomahawk Nation staff, as they do before every game, have broken down all the FSU and Miami (FL) film available, charted each All-22 formations/snaps, performed A.I. virtual simulations, compiled all of the data, and have come to the conclusion that the Noles could win under the right circumstances.

According to DraftKings, FSU is currently a 7.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 53.5 points.

  • Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
  • Then look over and digest all of the FREE PREGAME CONTENT we’ve posted below.
  • We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.

Brian Pellerin (season record: 6-2)

Florida State is simply a better team. There’s just no other way to put it. I’m not looking at this with garnet goggles or whatever you want to call it because I’m not a Nole grad. My eyes from watching both teams several times this year are that Florida State is simply a better football team. The QB is better. The run game is better. The receivers are better, and down the list you go. Jordan Travis lights up U-M, and Jared Verse gets at least two sacks. This won’t be close unless Miami found a new roster and scheme in the last 6 days.

FSU 31, Miami 6

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NoleThruandThru (season record: 6-2)

This team is getting healthy at the right time, especially along the defensive line. I’m hoping that Saturday will give us a glimpse of what this team could have been all along, had it had better injury luck. Rivalry game gon’ rivalry game, and I’m sure the Cane TE Mallory will give FSU problems, but this one isn’t coming down to a kick with FSU’s three-headed RB monster back in action. FMFFM.

FSU 34, Miami 29

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Tommy Mire (season record: 5-3)

I’m just gonna go with my gut instinct. I think FSU wins by two or more scores. Vegas at 7.5 in favor of FSU makes me think that Van Dyke will be playing, and I’m not really sure how much that changes things.

Having a team at near full health will give FSU the advantage, and this should be a game where they can showcase their strengths. If the Noles have another 100+ yards in penalties, however, that will be a factor in the outcome but expect this to be a slugfest.

The Canes might be looking for a little bit of payback after last season, but — different coach, different players, and I don't think they can handle Florida State’s offense.

This will be a game with a lot of eyes on it and could potentially turn into a blowout; if the Noles can create some takeaways, put another one in the win column.

It’s Miami week. Let's go.

FSU 38, Hurristains 21

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LastNoleOfKrypton (4-1)

I think FSU dominates in the trenches and comes home with a double digit win over the Hurricanes. Miami’s defensive line is pretty good, but FSU has already fared well against some pretty good defensive lines this year so I expect the ‘Noles to be up to the challenge.

Even if TVD can go, if he can’t move, that porous Miami offensive line will struggle to block FSU’s front. This is the healthiest FSU’s front seven has been since Week 1, and it’s going to show.

Player of the game? Jared Verse

FSU 27 Miami 13

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Gwyn Rhodes (season record: 4-2)

I once again can’t make a softball comparison (DAN PLEASE GET A SOFTBALL TEAM). So I’ll just keep it simple this week, I expect great Noles W. Dan please get a softball team.

FSU 32, I can't even say 14

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TimScribble (season record: 6-2)

Everything about this game tells me that FSU should win. Their running game is better, their passing attack has been more efficient, and they’ve been more successful on hitting the explosive plays… but I just can’t help but feeling pessimistic about the game. Maybe I’m hoping for the reverse jinx, but I think Miami’s defense does enough to keep the Hurricanes in it and we see a reverse of 2021. Miami crushes my soul late.

Miami 24, FSU 21

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Jon Marchant (season record: 6-2)

Miami’s season has been nothing short of disastrous relative to expectations, and they have nothing left to play for except beating FSU. So, they will show up in this game in ways they haven’t yet this season. Can FSU do enough early to get Miami to quit or will this one go down to the wire? Whatever the case, in the end I think (a finally healthy) FSU will be too much for this Canes squad as the ’Noles become bowl eligible for the first time since 2019.

FSU 28, Miami 23

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Evan Johnson (season record: 4-4)

Miami is, traditionally and this year, one of those teams that can look like a lesser opponent for large stretches of the year and then jump up and bite you. However, they pretty much only do this for FSU. Miami could learn how to catch (Restrepo is returning) and how to tackle and their defensive line could really cause havoc and they could beat FSU. The more likely scenario is that the ‘Noles put up more explosive plays on the ‘Canes and end up pulling away. I think FSU closes with a late score to make this game look further apart than it really was.

FSU 28, Miami 17

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FrankDNole (season record: 5-3)

What concerns me most about this game is that I will lose one hour of celebration time due to the time change. I need to make sure I set reminders to wake up one hour later.

I’ve heard that many UM fans still call him Tyler Van Spike, but I think he should sit out this game to avoid the possibility of further injuries which might possibly hurt his current Heisman campaign.

FMFFM

FSU Seminoles 38, University of Miami in Florida 21

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Matt Minnick (season record 5-1)

Florida State is a good team. Not “good team for its record,” and not “improved, but still just okay.” Yes, redzone efficiency has been a problem, but FSU is a good ball club. The offense is explosive, runs the ball extremely well, and has a variety of weapons on the outside. The defense is not elite, but now that it’s getting healthier they disrupt enough plays to slow down even good offenses.

Miami is as talented as the ‘Noles, but they don’t seem to be able to translate that into being a good team. The defensive line is very good, but they haven’t really faced a lot of opponents who can stretch the field. And their offense goes long stretches struggling to move the ball at all.

You hear a lot of talk about how this rivalry always produces close games. And there have certainly been a bunch of memorable nail biters, with heartbreaking outcomes for both programs. But guess what? 18 of the last 39 games between these two brash rivals have been double-digit margins. That includes FSU road wins in 1984 (38-3), 1996 (34-16), 1998 (26-14), 2010 (45-17), and 2012 (33-20). This year makes it 19 out of 40.

FSU 28, Miami 16

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Perry Kostidakis (season record 7-1)

Listen — I am the king of “you never know in rivalry games!” because I love how hilarious college football can be. I am fully aware of what can happen in even the lowest of stakes in college football matchups, because this is the greatest and silliest sport in the world.

Even with my faith in the ridiculous, even with the knowledge that this series is a breeding ground for shenanigans, I just haven’t seen this Miami team rev up even once this season. It has looked listless in all but the season opener vs. Bethune-Cookman, with the cracks in the team showing as early as Southern Miss. The Hurricanes defensive line is scary, especially when considering how deep it is across the board, and the return of Xaiver Restrepo is a major boost to whoever steps under cent for Miami, but FSU has taken a step since last year while Miami has regressed. The Seminoles’ defensive line is too talented to not have a field day against a hobbled Hurricanes’ line, FSU’s offense is too potent to not be able to at the very least emphasize one element of it and take advantage of a Miami team susceptible to big plays. Outside of the debacle in 2020, there hasn’t been a true blowout in this series since FSU’s 41-14 win in 2013.

And I think Florida State is due.

FSU 33, Miami 10

Florida State Seminoles vs. University of Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

Odds/lines are subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

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