The Florida State Seminoles are playing Friday night on the road versus the Louisville Cardinals. While they opened as a pick ‘em after the Cardinals’ game to Central Florida, that line has moved in the Seminoles favor it is currently has them as -2.5 (-115) favorites via DraftKings Sportsbook.
After Sunday, that line moved to -2.0 and has continued to move in the ‘Noles favor - the current odds (-115) for the spread indicate that the public is putting more and more money on the ‘Noles as favorites.
Given how they have started it makes sense, although I worry about confidence being so high so early on we still have a lot of season left. This line will only move more and more towards the Seminoles and could even be a field goal favorite by game-time.
Some betting trends for the ‘Noles via TeamRankings:
- 1-1 against the spread in 2022
- Under is 2-0 for FSU and Louisville in 2022
- Seminoles are favored in a road game for the first time since 2019 (0-1)
- Norvell is 6-10 against the spread vs ACC opponents
- Louisville was 5-3 vs the ACC in 2021
Florida State vs. Louisville Odds
FSU -2.5 (-115)
57.0 (O: -110, U -110)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Other interesting odds
Total passing touchdowns: Jordan Travis, over 1.5 (-150), under 1.5 (+115)
Total team points: FSU over/under 29.5 (-120), Louisville over 26.5 (+100)
Alternate spread: FSU -7 (+180)
Winning margin: FSU by 1-6 (+370)
Will the under trend continue for both of these teams with a 54.5 total? (-110 for both sides)
I believe it will — while the Seminoles have improved their pass catching this is still a run-first team with 52% of called plays having been runs. Even with a more pass heavy offense against LSU they controlled the clock, keeping the score low.
*(9/15/22) update - The total has moved to 57.0 I would wait up until game time on Friday night to grab the under. That number is so high with the Seminoles potentially running the ball 55% or more of the game. They could easily control the clock and it could be a high scoring game but 57 points is very high.
Norvell and Travis slowed the game down with quick passes and out of structure plays, along with converting key third downs. They do not want to have more long developing pass attempts, especially with the offensive line dealing with injuries.
I expect a run heavy attack Friday so the under is trending the right way and if the ‘Noles have progressed like they showed in these first 2 games the spread is fine to play as long as it stays below -3.5.
One of the big trends I noted was that this team is on track to be road favorites for the first time since 2019. From 2017-19 they were 1-1-5 against the spread as away favorites, but the public perception of this team is much different than it was so there could be value.
Here’s my official prediction from the Tomahawk Nation staff predictions vs Louisville:
The Seminoles struggled to contain the QB vs LSU in the Superdome they need to do their best to limit Malik Cunnigham. He will get some huge chunk plays and drive the ball downfield - you just cannot have him turn too many of those explosive plays into scores. On offense they need to slow down the game and take control early - I expect they will. Mix that in with some deep shots from Travis and they should put up some points.
FSU 30, Louisville 22
How to Watch FSU vs. Louisville
Friday, September 16th
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Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.